Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
